Friday, December 20, 2013

More Fun With Numbers

Continuing with our recent theme, today we'll once again dissect some of the Age Group competitiveness data.  Yesterday we jumped into how I did vs. the 2nd best guy in each of my wins and how that correlated with overall performance.  Today, we look at all my 137 triathlons and see the relationship between having the best Swim/Bike/Run split in my AG and whether I win or lose.  Here you go:

- I've completed 137 triathlons and won 45.  This is a 32.8% win percentage.

- 24 times I've had the #1 swim split.  Of these 24 races, I've won 18 for a 75.0% win rate.
- 113 times I haven't had the #1 swim.  My record in these races is 27-86 for 23.9%.

-84 times I've had the best bike.  I'm 44-40 for 54.7%
-53 times I haven't had the best bike.  I'm 1-52 in these for 1.9%

-11 times I've had the best run.  I'm 11-0 in these for 100%
-126 times I haven't had the best run.  In these I'm 34-92 for 27.0%

Interpretation: Obviously the bike is the most positive contributor to my AG competitiveness.  I'm able to get the top split on the bike vastly more often than on the swim and especially the run.  When I do post the top bike split, my winning % goes up above 50%.  If I don't win the bike, I'm simply not competitive.  This isn't a surprise, because if someone is better than I am on the bike, odds are that they are just a plain better athlete--I run up against a lot of these guys at IM and H-IM races, especially Kona.  When I win the swim, and especially the run then I have a very good chance of winning.  When I do win one or the other, odds are that I'm the best athlete in my AG at that race.

-19 times I've had both the best Swim and Bike (but not the Run).  My record is 14-5 for 73.7%.  This is a bit surprising as the win % I have with just the fastest Swim and when I have both the fastest Swim and Bike is about the same.  I would have thought the 1-2 punch would have dramatically upped my win rate here.

-7 times I've had both the top bike and run (but not the swim) and I'm 7-0 for 100.0% in these races.

-I've never had both the top swim and run without getting the top bike as well.

-4 times I've had the top split in all three disciplines.  Not surprisingly, I'm 4-0 in these races.

-I've recorded 52 races where I was not top in any of the three.  My record is 1-51 (1.9%) in these races as I won Annapolis back in 2011 with the 2nd fastest swim, 2nd fastest bike, and 5th fastest run out of 38 competitors.

-1 time I had the fastest Swim split only (not the fastest in the Bike nor the Run).  I'm 0-1 here.

-52 times I've had the fastest bike split only.  I'm 19-33 or 36.5%.   Here we can see the 1-2 impact of the swim.  While I win at a 36.5% rate with just the fastest Bike split, my win rate jumps to 49.3% (37 of 75) when I post the both the top Swim and Bike.

Reflect on that last statement for a second.  When I post BOTH the top Swim and Bike I win slightly less than half the time.  This is a testament to how competitively weak my run is!

-On that last note, I've never just had the fastest run split (when I have the fastest run split I also always have the fastest bike split).

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