Wednesday, December 18, 2013

2013 Review: The Data Dump Begins

Ok gang, I'm going to start my review of the 2013 season/career to date.  I'll finish it before I head down to Aconcagua on 1/10.  Rather than giving a polished, interpretive summary, I'll let you see it as I see it--through a lot of messy data and analyses....This is the first of several posts--and it's in no meaningful order!

The first is the updated summary of my AG performance over my 13 years:

From this lens, 2013 was an outstanding year for me (competitively).  I won my AG 7 times out of 11 races, which is the second most in a year in my career.  In 2009, I won 8 times.  However, in 2009 I raced 14 times and all of those races were local, short course races as I decided to take an "off" year and not race long course or any major races.  A more direct comparison would be to say in 2009 I won 8 of 14 local races and in 2013 I won 7 of 9.  In any event, including all races, I had my second highest AG podium percentage and my highest Win percentage.  Now, I'm aware of all of the ins and outs of the data that go into this, but hey, I'll take it--in my AG, in the races I raced this year, I was pretty tough to beat. 

Now, in contrast to this rosy picture, I offer the following more sobering analyses.  First here is a review of my USAT rating history:
The above chart shows the history of my USAT ratings--with the old method and the "new" one that they adopted in 2006.  You can see, by this measure, I peaked back in 2007.  also, it would seem that I did a pretty good job ratings wise up through 2011--staying above 80 in both measures.  However, the last two years have not been as good as I have fallen into the mid 78s.  Is this the new reality or can I jump back up?  2014 will be important from a measurement perspective with respect to this dimension.

One last chart for tonight--this one depicts my top 10 rated races over my career.  Notable is  the abscense of any top 10 performances over the last two seasons.  I still cling to that late 2011 effort at SkipJack to believe that I still have one or more breakthrough performances left in my career....we'll see.

More analyses to follow in the days ahead.

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