Thursday, December 19, 2013

Age Group Win Venn Diagram: Is it All About the Bike?

More fun with numbers.  Here is a Venn Diagram of my 45 AG wins where I plot the three disciplines (Swim, Bike, Run) and whether or not I beat the second place guy in my AG in each discipline during that win.  I do this because in each of the 45 wins I want to see, relative to the guy who was closest to beating me, how much each of the three disciplines contributed to the victory:

Besides addressing a seemingly never ending need of mine to analyze, what does the above tell us?  What is does is it gives me a sense of what is driving my AG wins--is it really just my bike or is there more to the story.  The above diagram indicates:

1. Of my 45 wins, 22 times I was faster than #2 in both the Swim and Bike.  9 times I just had the faster Bike.  7 times I had the faster split in all 3.  6 times I had both the faster Bike and Run and 1 time I only had the faster swim (2nd place guy was faster in both the bike and run).  I never had just the faster Run or both the faster Swim and Run only.

2. Of these 45 wins, 30 times I had the faster swim, 44 times I had the faster Bike, and 13 times I had the faster Run.

3. 38 times my bike alone was sufficient for me to win.  This number is composed of 3 elements: a. every race where I was faster in all 3 disciplines (7); b. every race where just my bike was faster (9); every race where either my bike was the faster and either my swim or run was also the faster but if the other discipline had not been faster, my bike was still good enough to win (15).  By the same token, 17 times my swim was suffient to win and 8 times my run was sufficient to win.

Also perhaps of interest is the following.  In my 45 wins I've been 45:51 faster than all of the 2nd place guys on the swim, which is 1:02 per race on average.  Here is how it breaks out by discipline:

Swim      +45:51     (+ 1:02/race)
Bike      +211:04     (+ 4:41/race)
Run        -31:42      (- 0:42/race)
Trans      +24:53     (+ 0:34/race)

Total     +225:13     (+ 5:34/race)     

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