Temperature and Tactics

Well it looks like we may draw a bit of a losing ticket with respect to the weather on Sunday--still a ways away of course but it definitely looks like a pretty solid heat wave on tap for game day. The forecasts i see call for 85-89 degrees as the high (ie what I'll have to deal with on the marathon). also, the water temp has risen 5 degrees F in the last week and is getting dangerously close to non-wetsuit.

I began the year with a goal of setting a new PR (11:19) and breaking 11 hours at IM Germany....I know that it's not the fastest IM course in the world as the bike features cobbies and climbs but with the right fitness, I certainly have to feel I have a shot at it. One of the things I've learned in my triathlon days and ways is that setting time goals for IMs can be a very poor tactical decision. Trying to force a pace that's not realistic given the actual situation on the day can be a recipe for disaster--you can suffer through a major tactical mistake like that in a sprint or even an Oly but at the IM level it can result in a very slow time, DNF or a trip to the hospital. So I'd like to think that I'm smart enough to avoid that.

Here are some things I'm mulling over as I look 6 days out from IM Germany:

1. when I set the goals for this race, it was before I had qualified for Kona. with the KQ, the only objective that really matters to me this year is finishing Kona--I don't want to do anything on July 4th to jeopardize that goal.

2. The heat will be a real problem for me. If it is that hot on race day then my ability to run close to 4 hours will be severly compromised--indeed, it would probably be impossible for me to do so--regular readers of this blog know that I am quite poor in hot/humid conditions on the run. If that is the case, then my time goals are no longer realistic.

3. A non-wetsuit swim will add another 10-20 minutes to my race as I'll need to conserve a bit on the swim due to the added physical stress of a non-wetsuit swim.

4. The construction work on the course has added another 5k. This is not huge--a 185km bike ride vs. a 180km but at my intended pace this does translate into another 8-10 minutes depending on what that extra 5k looks like.

5. My run is NOT ready to hammer an IM marathon. I just have too much more PT to do and indeed I'm hoping I can be ready to really run at Kona. I'm realistically at least 30 minutes off of my run potential right now.

So, given that, I'm going to keep an open mind in the run-up to the race and be prepared to dial back my efforts on the swim and bike in order to ensure I can survive a challenging run. That is NOT the plan but it very well could be.