I'm very excited to lace 'em up and start my 3-month Short Course Race Overdose!
I'm racing the Bassman Sprint Triathlon this Sunday morning. Conditions look splendid. I love the venue. I've raced there four times before and have won my AG all four times. I feel good and ready to have at it--loving everything about my space coming into this race.
The RD (unfortunately) has changed the race from the old format: 0.5M swim/28M bike (!!!!!!)/4M run to a new (more user friendly) format: 0.35M swim/11M bike/5K run. This is not a welcome thing for me competitively (obviously) but more than that--one of the best things about Bass River was the awesome, and unusually long bike leg. Now, it's just like all the rest of the NJ sprints.
That said, there is still much to recommend about this race. Hands-down the best swim venue in the state. A great place to run. Quirky RD/team. I do like this race. Plus, did I mention I'm 4-0 here?
LOL.
Anyways, this Sunday's race could be an epic AG battle for me.
But first, my disclaimers. there are (currently) 13 people entered in my AG. I know a fair amount about 10 of them. the other 3 are unknown. That usually means that they will not be a factor--but this is not always so. Also, you never know who will show up at the last minute. Plus, a triathlete's fitness changes from year to year and you never know when a former slug will show up and dust your ass. So, the following assessment of the competitive profile for this race must be balanced by the real chance that someone I'm not expecting, shows up and crushes me.
That said, I don't think so. As I see it, the race this sunday morning has the potential to be a classic shootout with one of my longest-running (and most respected) AG competitors, the fabulous Mr. Tom Dillon. I think our race could literally come down to a desperate sprint to the finish line--and how cool would that be? Of course, it will most likely be far less dramatic than that--he'll beat me comfortably or visa-versa...but something about this set-up tells me otherwise....here's why:
So as best as I can tell, I've raced Tom 11 (out of my 101 triathlons) times through the years. The only person I've raced against more is the great Mickster (Mickey Syrop). To take nothing away from my battles with Mickey, my races with Tom have been very compelling through the years because we are so evenly matched. Here's my competitive analysis which is followed by how I see the race on Sunday:
Mano-a-Mano: Tom Dillon
An important thing to note in all of this is that Tom has had to manage and work around a long-term health challenge. He suffers from periodic bouts of vertigo which obviously limit his ability to train specifically and to race as much as he would like. So, his race performances tend to vary a fair amount depending on how well his body is acting. that said, when he gets to go at it as he would like, he is an outstanding triathlete. In my judgement, he is more inherently talented than I but is held back--in a sparadic fashion, by his ailment. when he is right and able to train--he is the man, and in my view, a better triathlete than I. In 2010 Tom was finally healthy for the year and crushed it. I didn't race him last year, but I am absolutely certain that if I had, he would have beaten me easily. So coming into this race, I wouldn't be surprised at all that Tom was a stronger triathlete than I and should be expected to be beat me--that's where the smart money is.
That said, the historical data does favor the home team:
In the 11 races we've contested, beginning with the 2002 Lum's Pong triathlon up through the 2009 Vincentown Triathlon, I've compiled a 9-2 record against Tom. 5 of these 11 races have been decided by less than a minute. Here is a more granular analysis of Tom and I, mano-a-mano:
The Swim
Tom is a fantastic swimmer. He owns me on the swim. He has been the faster swimmer in all 11 of our races. I came as close as 16 seconds once (2006 Stone Harbor) and was a full 4:14 slower at Sunset 2005, a few days after my grade 3 shoulder separation. If we exclude these two end-posts, Tom on average beats me by 70 seconds in the swim. 6 of these 11 swim contests have me coming in between 45 and 60 seconds behind him.
Transition One
We are very even in transitions. I tend to do a little better in T1 and Tom tends to do a little better in T2. I have data for 10 T1s and I've been faster for 6 of them. We've been within 10 seconds in 7 of these T1s. If we throw out the high and the low differences, I average a 4 second advantage over Tom in T1.
The Bike
So if Tom is a fantastic swimmer, I must be a fantastic biker (lol). I have out-split tom in all of our bike match-ups to date. He was only 22 seconds behind at Lenape 2004 but I put a full 7:58 on him at the Pine Barrens Olympic in 2003. throwing these out, I average a 98 second advantage over Tom on the bike and in all but one race, have been at least a minute faster.
Transition Two
Tom has bested me 7 of our 10 match-ups. 7 of the 10 times the delta has been less than 10 seconds. On average, he enjoys a 2 second advantage on me.
The Run
Amazingly, and not by a lot, I have out-run tom through the years. I've been faster 9 of the 11 races. That said, 7 of the 11 runs we contested have been less than 1 minute apart. I've averaged a 36 second advantage. Importantly, whoever has lead coming out of T2 has always won.
So let's reflect on this. Tom dominates in the Swim. I so in the Bike. Our transitions are neutral and in the run I've prevailed by a small margin, but Tom is certainly acendant, and running a lot faster than I in 2010 (even though we didn't race against each other).
In 2005, I raced against Tom (and Mickey) at the Marlton sprint race. We were both in good, late season shape. there were 376 people in the race and we finished RC (10th), Mick (11th), and Tom (12th). To me, this was a classic race that captures the essence of tom's and my battles through the years--and I hope is a foreshadowing of what might unfold on sunday:
In the swim Tom put 62 seconds on me. He was the 10th fastest swim OA (98th %-tile). My swim was very solid (given my swim skills then) and I was 88th %-tile.
I put 6 seconds on him in T1 (we were both in the top 10 %) and I left T1 56 seconds behind him.
Tom had an outstanding bike leg--he was 8th OA. but I was considerably faster and I caught him in the last mile and at the line, put 61 seconds into him on the bike. I entered T2 with a 5 second lead and left with a 4 second lead as Tom was marginally faster in T1.
On the run we stayed within 10 seconds for most of the 5k. Only in the last mile was I able to pull away, putting 20 seconds on tom to beat him by a total of 24 seconds.
I think this a very representative race for us and hopefully one the forshadows our race on sunday--even if I'm the one that loses (though that would be less good). the reason I think Tom has to be the favorite is this look at our Mid-Atlantic ratings over the last 7 years:
RC/Tom:
2004: 77.9/79.6
2005: 83.8/80.5
2006: 83.9/80.4
2007: 85.7/78.8
2008: 82.4/81.0
2009: 86.4/83.0
2010: 82.4/83.5
Tom's strength in 2010 is eveident in these numbers and is correlated with his All-american status in 2010 (which I did not achieve).
So on sunday--here's how I see it.
Swim: I need to try to stay 60 seconds (or less) behind. At 0.35 miles, it's a slightly longer swim than the majority of our prior races but I'm a much better swimmer now--even with my lack of training this year. I'd take a 60 second deficit right now.
Transitions: I need to keep these neutral. I'd love to gain a few seconds but if I could wave my wand, I'd take an even transition time with Tom.
The Bike: I need to make it happen here. I absolutely need to enter T2 in front of Tom. so I'd better be at leat 60 seconds faster! If I don't do this, I'm probably sunk and whining about my fitness on my post-race blog. Better than inching out Tom, I'd love to get my average advantage of 98 seconds on the bike---this would give me a very real tactical advantage entering the run.
I've outrun Tom 9 of the 11 times. The data says I'm a better runner. That said, he was healthy last year and he ran a lot faster than me. I think Tom is likely to be faster than me this sunday. If that is the case, I hope I'm leading by enough coming out of T2.
whatever happens, I'm psyched---should be a blast and it will certainly be a privilege to race and feel the (remaining) strength that my body posseses....If I win great! If tom wins, I'll celebrate his return to health with him. If someone else wins, we'll congratulate him and look forward to the following weekend. The weather is finally nice. I have a lot of races on the docket. I love this!!!!!
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