Saturday will be my first Triathlon of the 2011 campaign (God willing). Here are some of my thoughts about my potential performance:
Swim
Last year at OS I did a 33:07. My pre-race time trials indicated that I was ready to do a 32:25. My personal best in a Half-IM is 32:45 (Eagleman 2007). My whole approach last year was to be very conservative because I had a Kona slot on the line and I felt if I just didn't mess up I would get the XC slot (which I eventually did). So the fact that I was 42 seconds slower than my TTs indicated tells me that the course/conditions last year were pretty much spot on. Of course, there is no guarantee that will be the situation this year but for purposes of this analysis, i'll assume that my TTs are reasonable predictors of my performance at OS.
This year I am in not quite as good shape as last year. In the last 3 months I've swam about 20% less yardage as compared to last year. Of-course, this is by design as I don't plan to do specific Long Course training until August 1st. My TTs indicate that I am in 34-35 minute shape.
Another factor to consider is that last year I was swimming (for the first time) in my new Water Rover wetsuit--which, of-course is now illegal for WTC races like OS. This year I'll be swimming in my new Blue Seventy Axis--a new design targeted at heavy leg/poor kickers like myself. I have no idea how much of a difference this will make, but I'm sure my Water Rover is the faster of the two suits. That said, I did a 500 TT this morning in the pool in the Axis and easily swam a 7:30 in what I would characterize as a race pace effort. This would translate into a 31:30 H-IM swim split. Of-course, I'd expect to fatigue somewhat given my lack of volume but the swim this morning sure was encouraging.
Given all this, I'll give my 75 %-tile, 50 %-tile, and 25%-tile time predictions as:
75 %-tile: 33 minutes
50 %-tile: 34 minutes
25 %-tile: 35 minutes
What this means is that I expect to turn in a 34 minute swim. That I think I have a 3 in 4 chance of swimming at least 35 minutes or faster and that I have just a 1 in 4 chance of going faster than 33 minutes.
What ultimately may be of more interest is how I stack up against the field. Last year I was 25th out of 161 in my AG (86 %-tile) and 507th out of 2171 overall (77 %-tile) OA. Frankly, irrespective of my time, I'd pleased to replicate these relative placings on the swim this Saturday!
Transitions
Last year T1 was 4:19 and T2 was 2:22 for a total transition time of 6:41. I see nothing that would cause me to think I am any faster or slower this year. I might vary by 30 seconds either way:
75 %-tile: 6:10
50 %-tile: 6:40
25 %-tile: 7:10
Bike
Last year at this point I had rode 450 more miles than this year. I also had a number of rides longer than 70 miles while my max has been around 65 this year. This was in-part by design, but also reflects my frustration with the weather we've had this year (it was bad last year too but I've definitely been more annoyed with it this year). I've simply not ridden as much outside this year as last year. As a result, and especially from a Long Course point of view, I really don't feel "on it". I suspect my bike fitness is somewhat less than last year. Also last year was a relatively benign day (wind-wise) and the ride was somewhat faster than more normal Oceanside conditions might enable. This of course argues for a slower time than last year.
On the other side of the coin, I rode a conservative race last year trying to avoid a race ending (and Kona-denying) mishap. I rode a clincher 606 wheel set-up. I definitely was very conservative on the descents and I was riding the course for the first time. This year, I will not qualify for Kona at Oceanside (change in XC rules) so i can be a little more aggressive. While I'm not sure what front wheel I will go with yet (game time decision) I do plan on running a disc in the rear. I may also ride a little bit faster on the descents but probably not appreciably so--I'm basically a wimp when it comes to descending.
Also, my latest FTP workouts indicate that my FTP power is around 280 watts, which is pretty solid fitness. In theory I should be able to go pretty fast with that headroom. I wonder, however, if I have enough endurance to fully utilize this higher end speed. We'll see. All in all, I expect to be slightly slower than last year, although it is possible for me to beat my split from last year. It's also possible for me to be slower, and considerably so if the conditions are appreciably worse than last year.
Last year I split a 2:43:44 with an average watts of 174. This was good enough for 20th (88 %-tile) in my AG and 443rd OA (80th %-tile). Those of you who know me know that these numbers are almost always 95+ and 90+ respectively. Of-course, I'm better on flatter ground where my size is less of a handicap.
Anyways, here's the prediction:
75 %-tile: 2:40
50 %-tile: 2:45
25 %-tile: 2:55
Run
Although I've raced several fewer times this year at both the 5k and half-marathon distance, I'm cautiously optimistic that I might be in as-good or slightly better shape than last year. With my lack of racing it's a bit of a stab in the dark but that is what it feels like at this point. I did my half-mile repeats at a 6:40 pace this last week which indicates i should be in sub 1:40 open half-marathon shape.
Last year, I ran a 56 minute first lap and then really backed off the pace to finish in 1:58:30. I did this because all I had to do was get across the line to claim my Kona slot (I was way ahead of my XC competition) and because I was cramping (in part due to forgetting to bring any of my Enduralytes on the run). I also felt pretty tired and saw no need to punish myself with another Half-IM scheduled for three weeks later. Competitively, I was 47th in my AG (71 %-tile) and 906th OA (58th %-tile).
I'd like to think I'll run faster this Saturday although I've struggled through enough runs historically to know that I could be even slower. Here are my predictions:
75 %-tile: 1:48
50 %-tile: 1:52
25 %-tile: 2:00
Overall
Last year I finished in 5:22:04 as I was 29th in my AG ( 83rd %-tile) and 571st (73rd %-tile) OA. with the above here are my predictions for 2011:
Expected finish time (50 %-tile): 5:18--about 4 minutes faster than last year.
On the up side, if I have an extremely good day across the board I might go as fast as 5:07 (that would be amazing for me and I certainly don't expect to go that fast).
If I have a real tough day i could be as slow as 5:37. That would be a tough day for sure--one I hope does not happen.
Of-course who knows? It's real tough to predict Long course races but there you go....
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