Saturday, November 3, 2018

Race Day Weather Update

Here is the hourly forecast for tomorrow for most of the race timeframe:


Observations:

1.  It will be cloudy most of the day which will reduce the stress of the sun.

2.  The wind direction is predominantly from the East and the course (I think) mostly runs North and South so it seems like it will be mostly a cross wind.  This means the wind will have a lesser impact than if it was either North or South.  Good for times, although competitively, anything that makes the bike harder is generally better for me.  It says less than 10mph but my on the ground experience over the last few days tells me that out in the countryside it will feel like a pretty good wind--maybe 15+mph.  Nothing that would impact bike handling though.

3. Rain/T-storms.  When it says it might rain here it does seem to rain so my guess is that we'll start to get some rain on the bike--maybe mostly in the 2nd lap.  This shouldn't be a problem.  This is not a super technical course and I'm fine playing it cautious when I need to (to compensate for the relatively poor breaking surface on my carbon wheels).

4. T-storms/run.  It looks like its going to be a real soaker on the run--which I'm in favor of.  The thunderstorms are a concern--I hope it doesn't impact the race at all (but nothing I can do about it so we'll see what happens).

5.  Heat--bike should feel fine, although I'll need to really focus on drinking more than I might feel like I need to because it will be deceptively warm--especially on the 2nd lap.  The run is going to be oppressive with Dew Points in the low 70s.  The rain will help and the fact that I move so slowly means that the heat should impact me less than faster runners.

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My calf is still funky.  I'm going to probably skip my normal day before short run.  I did ride 5 miles this morning and my calf seems to be fine for the bike...I'm guessing it will be a voyage of discovery race morning!


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